Handicappers Blog: Cheltenham Focus

The BHA Handicappers give a detailed view on some of the big races at the Festival

Gold Cup
Kauto Star attempting to win his third Gold Cup in the face off with Denman is just so exciting. It is not by any means a two horse race. I have Imperial Commander on a rating of 174 and that would be high enough to have given Best Mate a run for his money in each of his three Gold Cup wins.

As a result of his rout of the opposition in the King George I now have Kauto Star on 193. I never thought I would ever use a rating of 180+ never mind anything in the 190’s but the three superstars from Somerset have all put up at least two performances at 180+ in their careers.

What can go wrong with Kauto Star then? If they both run to their best and of course it is a big IF then Kauto Star should win by around 11 lengths. That is around 2.5 seconds in time. When you see it written down like that, his supremacy doesn’t look nearly so pronounced. A horse can lose 2.5 seconds with an error at any fence.

Whatever the result if all of the top horses run anywhere near their best form we are in for a treat.

Champion Hurdle
Only a glance is needed at the betting to establish that this year’s Champion Hurdle has a decidedly open look.

It is not that it lacks quality (there are likely to be at least half a dozen 160 plus horses in the race) but it lacks an outstanding star as things stand.

The form of last year’s Champion Hurdle has been downgraded this term and Celestial Halo’s Wincanton handicap win off 165 sees him now joint top of the ratings, with a current official BHA figure of 168 (he actually reached 170 last November).

Punjabi looked to be coming back to form and a repeat cannot be ruled despite his rating dropping to 164 (from a peak of 169 following last year's Champion Hurdle triumph).

Solwhit now appears under a cloud but he is also on 168 following his Leopardstown win in January, a rating Zaynar earned at Ascot before getting stuck in the Kelso mud.

Go Native is on for a big bonus after wins at Newcastle and Kempton, and one thing we did learn at Gosforth Park was that he has the foot to outkick them all in a tactical race - but his narrow defeat of recent flat scorer Starluck (161) leaves him on 164.

Also on 164 is last year’s Supreme Novice runner up Medermit, who has twice seen the rear of Khyber Kim (165) this season. Ironically an out and out gallop would probably favour Go Native’s stable companion Donnas Palm who has improved all winter and is no forlorn hope from his current rating of 162 - only one pound behind the rather more ballyhooed Binocular, who we assess at 163 (that's 6lb lower than his peak rating of 169, which he was rated throughout 2009).

Finally a word for Voler la Vedette should the possible absences of the likes of Binocular and Solwhit cause a change of heart. Her rating of 161 and a seven-pound mares' allowance would put her right in the mix.

Champion Chase
If back at his awesome best - and last month's Game Spirit Chase win strongly suggests that he is - Master Minded will be hard to beat.

Winner of the Cheltenham speed test for the past two years, Master Minded is the top-rated two-miler on a current official BHA mark of 178 and had so much in hand on his Newbury comeback that he could have well been rated higher.

The seven-year-old clocked a mind-boggling 186 when blitzing previous Queen Mother winner Voy Por Ustedes two years ago by 19 lengths and his fans will be willing him to replicate that show-stopping performance. Chief obstacles, fences apart, to Master Minded's historic hat-trick bid are his rejuvenated stable-mate Twist Magic (173) and the excitingly progressive Kalahari King (166).

Twist Magic, runaway winner this winter of the Grade 1 Tingle Creek and Victor Chandler Chases, proved a massive let-down in the past two renewals of next Wednesday's showpiece. However, he is on much better terms with himself these days and would have gone close to victory in the 2007 Arkle but for falling two out.

Kalahari King, inched out by Forpadydeplasterer (158) in last year's Arkle, has been brought along patiently by Ferdy Murphy with a view to peaking on Champion Chase day. There was so much to like about his decisive win under top-weight in a valuable Doncaster handicap last month after a 287-day absence that it would be no surprise if he leaves his current mark behind.

Big Zeb (165), a major disappointment in the Tingle Creek, has since confirmed his well-being by trotting-up at Punchestown. Injury-plagued Well Chief (161), a gallant second to Master Minded last year, has reached the veteran stage now and will do exceptionally well to get as close this time.

Triumph Hurdle
With Escort’men (149), Sang Bleu (144) and Mille Chief (136) all either bypassing the race or injured, the home defence looks a bit thin this year, particularly as the ex-French Sway (141) is not a novice and therefore not qualified.

Recent Gallic import Soldatino is top of the pile with an official BHA rating of 148 after his Kempton win. Other possible home-trained contenders would be headed by Me Voici (145), followed at a respectful distance by Westlin' Winds (136) and Advisor (135).

This is a race in which the Irish have struggled during recent years but Carlito Brigante (147), Alaivan (146), Secant Star (not yet qualified for a rating but worth around a 140 from his win at Gowran Park) and Pittoni (139) all look to be serious players this year in a less than vintage renewal.

One late-comer could yet be Notus de la Tour (134), who's a leading ante-post fancy for the Fred Winter.

World Hurdle
The picture hasn’t exactly changed much recently regarding Big Buck’s attempt to win a second World Hurdle. With a BHA mark of 174, he's a full half-stone ahead of Karabak (167), his nearest rival on ratings - and also his closest pursuer when the pair met at Newbury last time.

While Karabak, who has only had six hurdle starts in his life, may have further improvement in him, it's difficult to see how he can turn the tables in an incident-free contest.

Alan King's charge is in turn is rated seven pounds superior to Fair Along, Sentry Duty and Tidal Bay, all rated 160, with Time For Rupert next best on 159.

Head of Handicapping Phil Smith- Cheltenham Thoughts

As we approach the Cheltenham Festival. It is difficult to decide which of the “big” races I am looking forward to most. Is it the Champion Hurdle which looks really open this year? Is it the Ryanair which appears to be improving as a competitive contest every year? Is it the World Hurdle with the Champion Big Buck’s taking on a rejuvenated Tidal Bay and former Gold Cup winner (and still a Grand National entry) War of Attrition? Or is it the Champion Chase with Master Minded apparently back somewhere near his best faced opposed by Twist Magic, Kalahari King and Big Zeb?

They are all mouth watering prospects but for me Kauto Star attempting to win his third Gold Cup in the face off with Denman is just sooo exciting. It is not by any means a two horse race. I have Imperial Commander on a rating of 174 and that would be high enough to have given Best Mate a run for his money in each of his three Gold Cup wins.

As a result of his rout of the opposition in the King George I now have Kauto Star on 193. I never thought I would ever use a rating of 180+ never mind anything in the 190’s but the three superstars from Somerset have all put up at least two performances at 180+ in their careers.

What can go wrong with Kauto Star then? If they both run to their best and of course it is a big IF then Kauto Star should win by around 11 lengths. That is around 2.5 seconds in time. When you see it written down like that, his supremacy doesn’t look nearly so pronounced. A horse can lose 2.5 seconds with an error at any fence.

Whatever the result if all of the top horses run anywhere near their best form we are in for a treat.

Inevitably the production of the Cheltenham handicaps last week has brought the usual complaints from across the Irish Sea that we are not fair to their horses. Let us look at the facts. Over the last 5 seasons, Irish horses have won 16 Festival handicaps from 217 runners. This gives them a strike rate of 7.4%. During the same period British trained horses have won 34 handicaps from 912 runners at a strike rate of 3.7%.

The reality is that the Irish have won at a rate of double the British trained horses. Methinks they do protest too much especially as in the same period British trained horses have won 1 handicap at the Punchestown Festival from 83 runners.

Not all of the Irish runners this year are running from ratings that are higher than they have in Ireland. We have a policy in Britain of dropping older horses who are not the force they were at a faster rate than is the case in Ireland. As a result 17 Irish trained horses have been assessed for the Festival handicaps off a lower rating than they currently have in Ireland.

In the rush to grab a provocative headline, neither the Racing Post journalists nor the Irish trainers have had the time to research who they are yet.

We also usually get criticised for our Cheltenham handicaps by Northern trainers. Sure enough this week Ferdy Murphy in the press claimed that Northern horses are assessed 5lbs. too high by us.

Again I looked back at the results at Cheltenham over recent years. From 2006 onwards, Northern trained horses have won 7 handicaps at the Festival from 108 runners at a strike rate of 6.5%. Not as high as the Irish, I agree but certainly way above the national average of 3.7%. Still never let the facts get in the way of a good headline.

Interestingly the seven Northern trained winners included four trained by Ferdy Murphy so we obviously didn’t have them 5lbs. too high. You’re Special won by 3.5 lengths, Joes Edge won by a short head, L’Antartique won by 2 lengths and Naiad Du Misselot won by a nose. We were very proud of the closeness of those finishes. If they had carried 5lbs. less we would not have been doing a very good job.

Astonishingly only last week Mr Murphy contacted Martin Greenwood one of my Senior Handicappers and told him he had one of his horses, King of Confusion 5lbs. too low, not too high. Confused yes we were too at first, until we realised it was because King of Confusion would have needed to be 5lbs. higher to get a run at the Cheltenham Festival!

Mark Blackman: Speed Mapping

Raceday Integrity Coordinator Mark Blackman discusses the merits of 'speed mapping' and how it could be applied to British racing

ALMOST every week, it seems, the integrity services department at the BHA’s headquarters in High Holborn receives a visit from someone interested in learning more about what we do.

Our benchmark intelligence-gathering and betting analysis procedures are a lure for interested parties from all manner of other sports and jurisdictions, and many sections of the media, fascinated by the systems we have in place for keeping the sport as clean as possible, and taking the fight against corruption ever forward.

They come to learn about how we operate in racing, and leave with ideas about how our methods can be employed in their own sports.

Sometimes, of course, it can work the other way, and a visitor to our offices can engage us with details of their own operation. That’s exactly what happened when two racing integrity chiefs from Australia dropped in for an afternoon recently.

Terry Bailey, the chairman of stewards for Racing Victoria, and Brant Dunshea, general manager of integrity services for Harness Racing Victoria, provided a brief but fascinating insight into the ways in which their sports are policed and refereed. The most absorbing topic for discussion – one I could have spent hours talking to them about – was their reliance on ‘speed mapping’.

Prior to every meeting in Victoria, the stewards are given a 45-minute ‘race pace’ briefing by their equivalent of one of our handicappers. During this thorough going-over of the day’s events, they are guided by the speed mapper on precisely how they should expect each race to be run.

"No.1 breaks quickly and will lead on the rail; No. 2 likes to sit just behind the pace and will track No. 1 on the rail; No. 3 is always held up towards the rear; No. 4 breaks fast and should track over the two-path...." and so on and so on, for every horse in every race.

That level of briefing does not take place in Britain, and to be fair, with the volume of racing that is centrally governed here, it would require a huge investment in resources to do it.

Armed with this depth of pace expectation, the stewards in Australia know exactly where each runner should be in the early stages of their race if its chance is to be maximised, on all known evidence. If the race does not pan out as expected, then be in no doubt, the stewards WILL ask questions of those who don’t play the game as expected – although, as Dunshea pointed out, “they’re horses, not slot cars”, and the stewards are experienced enough to take account of that.

Furthermore, if any connections plan to change their tactics for a particular race – for example, they intend to hold up a horse that usually front-runs, whether for tactical reasons of because of the barrier draw – they are required by the rules to inform the stewards beforehand.



I wonder what trainers here would make of that. If the tactics are wildly different and they haven’t informed the stewards, or if they report a change of tactics but don’t then implement them, they can again expect to be asked some pretty searching questions.

In an ideal world, it would be wonderful to be able to brief the raceday stewards with this sort of speed mapping in Britain. There are a number of barriers that would need to be overcome, but so there were in Victoria when stricter rules were brought in five years ago governing changes in tactics.

Trainers initially went volcanic when they were told they would be required to inform the stewards of their intentions, but now that it is woven into the fabric of the sport there, it reportedly works well and has made the sport more transparent for the stewards and punters alike.

The volume of racing and the resources that would be required to cover it are the main reasons why ‘speed mapping’ briefings are a long way off in Britain, but there is no reason why the principals cannot be applied a lot more often.

To my mind, when a jockey rides a horse a different way from what we have all come to expect, regardless of how hard he or she has tried during the race, there’s no reason why we can’t ask a simple question of them: “Why did you ride the horse that way today?” Most of the time, I’m sure, their answer will provide an acceptable explanation, and surely that’s more informative for everyone than not to ask a question at all?

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