As we approach the Cheltenham Festival. It is difficult to decide which of the “big” races I am looking forward to most. Is it the Champion Hurdle which looks really open this year? Is it the Ryanair which appears to be improving as a competitive contest every year? Is it the World Hurdle with the Champion Big Buck’s taking on a rejuvenated Tidal Bay and former Gold Cup winner (and still a Grand National entry) War of Attrition? Or is it the Champion Chase with Master Minded apparently back somewhere near his best faced opposed by Twist Magic, Kalahari King and Big Zeb?
They are all mouth watering prospects but for me Kauto Star attempting to win his third Gold Cup in the face off with Denman is just sooo exciting. It is not by any means a two horse race. I have Imperial Commander on a rating of 174 and that would be high enough to have given Best Mate a run for his money in each of his three Gold Cup wins.
As a result of his rout of the opposition in the King George I now have Kauto Star on 193. I never thought I would ever use a rating of 180+ never mind anything in the 190’s but the three superstars from Somerset have all put up at least two performances at 180+ in their careers.
What can go wrong with Kauto Star then? If they both run to their best and of course it is a big IF then Kauto Star should win by around 11 lengths. That is around 2.5 seconds in time. When you see it written down like that, his supremacy doesn’t look nearly so pronounced. A horse can lose 2.5 seconds with an error at any fence.
Whatever the result if all of the top horses run anywhere near their best form we are in for a treat.
Inevitably the production of the Cheltenham handicaps last week has brought the usual complaints from across the Irish Sea that we are not fair to their horses. Let us look at the facts. Over the last 5 seasons, Irish horses have won 16 Festival handicaps from 217 runners. This gives them a strike rate of 7.4%. During the same period British trained horses have won 34 handicaps from 912 runners at a strike rate of 3.7%.
The reality is that the Irish have won at a rate of double the British trained horses. Methinks they do protest too much especially as in the same period British trained horses have won 1 handicap at the Punchestown Festival from 83 runners.
Not all of the Irish runners this year are running from ratings that are higher than they have in Ireland. We have a policy in Britain of dropping older horses who are not the force they were at a faster rate than is the case in Ireland. As a result 17 Irish trained horses have been assessed for the Festival handicaps off a lower rating than they currently have in Ireland.
In the rush to grab a provocative headline, neither the Racing Post journalists nor the Irish trainers have had the time to research who they are yet.
We also usually get criticised for our Cheltenham handicaps by Northern trainers. Sure enough this week Ferdy Murphy in the press claimed that Northern horses are assessed 5lbs. too high by us.
Again I looked back at the results at Cheltenham over recent years. From 2006 onwards, Northern trained horses have won 7 handicaps at the Festival from 108 runners at a strike rate of 6.5%. Not as high as the Irish, I agree but certainly way above the national average of 3.7%. Still never let the facts get in the way of a good headline.
Interestingly the seven Northern trained winners included four trained by Ferdy Murphy so we obviously didn’t have them 5lbs. too high. You’re Special won by 3.5 lengths, Joes Edge won by a short head, L’Antartique won by 2 lengths and Naiad Du Misselot won by a nose. We were very proud of the closeness of those finishes. If they had carried 5lbs. less we would not have been doing a very good job.
Astonishingly only last week Mr Murphy contacted Martin Greenwood one of my Senior Handicappers and told him he had one of his horses, King of Confusion 5lbs. too low, not too high. Confused yes we were too at first, until we realised it was because King of Confusion would have needed to be 5lbs. higher to get a run at the Cheltenham Festival!
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