Tuesday, 9 March 2010
Handicappers Blog: Cheltenham Focus
The BHA Handicappers give a detailed view on some of the big races at the Festival
Gold Cup
Kauto Star attempting to win his third Gold Cup in the face off with Denman is just so exciting. It is not by any means a two horse race. I have Imperial Commander on a rating of 174 and that would be high enough to have given Best Mate a run for his money in each of his three Gold Cup wins.
As a result of his rout of the opposition in the King George I now have Kauto Star on 193. I never thought I would ever use a rating of 180+ never mind anything in the 190’s but the three superstars from Somerset have all put up at least two performances at 180+ in their careers.
What can go wrong with Kauto Star then? If they both run to their best and of course it is a big IF then Kauto Star should win by around 11 lengths. That is around 2.5 seconds in time. When you see it written down like that, his supremacy doesn’t look nearly so pronounced. A horse can lose 2.5 seconds with an error at any fence.
Whatever the result if all of the top horses run anywhere near their best form we are in for a treat.
Champion Hurdle
Only a glance is needed at the betting to establish that this year’s Champion Hurdle has a decidedly open look.
It is not that it lacks quality (there are likely to be at least half a dozen 160 plus horses in the race) but it lacks an outstanding star as things stand.
The form of last year’s Champion Hurdle has been downgraded this term and Celestial Halo’s Wincanton handicap win off 165 sees him now joint top of the ratings, with a current official BHA figure of 168 (he actually reached 170 last November).
Punjabi looked to be coming back to form and a repeat cannot be ruled despite his rating dropping to 164 (from a peak of 169 following last year's Champion Hurdle triumph).
Solwhit now appears under a cloud but he is also on 168 following his Leopardstown win in January, a rating Zaynar earned at Ascot before getting stuck in the Kelso mud.
Go Native is on for a big bonus after wins at Newcastle and Kempton, and one thing we did learn at Gosforth Park was that he has the foot to outkick them all in a tactical race - but his narrow defeat of recent flat scorer Starluck (161) leaves him on 164.
Also on 164 is last year’s Supreme Novice runner up Medermit, who has twice seen the rear of Khyber Kim (165) this season. Ironically an out and out gallop would probably favour Go Native’s stable companion Donnas Palm who has improved all winter and is no forlorn hope from his current rating of 162 - only one pound behind the rather more ballyhooed Binocular, who we assess at 163 (that's 6lb lower than his peak rating of 169, which he was rated throughout 2009).
Finally a word for Voler la Vedette should the possible absences of the likes of Binocular and Solwhit cause a change of heart. Her rating of 161 and a seven-pound mares' allowance would put her right in the mix.
Champion Chase
If back at his awesome best - and last month's Game Spirit Chase win strongly suggests that he is - Master Minded will be hard to beat.
Winner of the Cheltenham speed test for the past two years, Master Minded is the top-rated two-miler on a current official BHA mark of 178 and had so much in hand on his Newbury comeback that he could have well been rated higher.
The seven-year-old clocked a mind-boggling 186 when blitzing previous Queen Mother winner Voy Por Ustedes two years ago by 19 lengths and his fans will be willing him to replicate that show-stopping performance. Chief obstacles, fences apart, to Master Minded's historic hat-trick bid are his rejuvenated stable-mate Twist Magic (173) and the excitingly progressive Kalahari King (166).
Twist Magic, runaway winner this winter of the Grade 1 Tingle Creek and Victor Chandler Chases, proved a massive let-down in the past two renewals of next Wednesday's showpiece. However, he is on much better terms with himself these days and would have gone close to victory in the 2007 Arkle but for falling two out.
Kalahari King, inched out by Forpadydeplasterer (158) in last year's Arkle, has been brought along patiently by Ferdy Murphy with a view to peaking on Champion Chase day. There was so much to like about his decisive win under top-weight in a valuable Doncaster handicap last month after a 287-day absence that it would be no surprise if he leaves his current mark behind.
Big Zeb (165), a major disappointment in the Tingle Creek, has since confirmed his well-being by trotting-up at Punchestown. Injury-plagued Well Chief (161), a gallant second to Master Minded last year, has reached the veteran stage now and will do exceptionally well to get as close this time.
Triumph Hurdle
With Escort’men (149), Sang Bleu (144) and Mille Chief (136) all either bypassing the race or injured, the home defence looks a bit thin this year, particularly as the ex-French Sway (141) is not a novice and therefore not qualified.
Recent Gallic import Soldatino is top of the pile with an official BHA rating of 148 after his Kempton win. Other possible home-trained contenders would be headed by Me Voici (145), followed at a respectful distance by Westlin' Winds (136) and Advisor (135).
This is a race in which the Irish have struggled during recent years but Carlito Brigante (147), Alaivan (146), Secant Star (not yet qualified for a rating but worth around a 140 from his win at Gowran Park) and Pittoni (139) all look to be serious players this year in a less than vintage renewal.
One late-comer could yet be Notus de la Tour (134), who's a leading ante-post fancy for the Fred Winter.
World Hurdle
The picture hasn’t exactly changed much recently regarding Big Buck’s attempt to win a second World Hurdle. With a BHA mark of 174, he's a full half-stone ahead of Karabak (167), his nearest rival on ratings - and also his closest pursuer when the pair met at Newbury last time.
While Karabak, who has only had six hurdle starts in his life, may have further improvement in him, it's difficult to see how he can turn the tables in an incident-free contest.
Alan King's charge is in turn is rated seven pounds superior to Fair Along, Sentry Duty and Tidal Bay, all rated 160, with Time For Rupert next best on 159.
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