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Handicappers Blog: Guineas trials and a trial for treason?
GUINEAS TRIALS AND TRIBULATIONS
The Guineas trials at Newmarket and Newbury this week produced as many questions as answers, writes Mark Olley (with assistance from Dominic Gardiner-Hill).
Red Jazz dictated a steady pace when making all to land the Bluesquare.com European Free Handicap, and in the process provide Barry Hills with his third win in the last four runnings of this 7f event. As with last year’s winner Ouqba, I'm not sure a step up to a mile will suit Red Jazz and if he is kept to the slightly shorter distance the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot is the obvious target.
I have raised Red Jazz five pounds to a new official mark of 112 – it's interesting to note that Ouqba produced a figure of 114 when winning the 2009 Jersey Stakes.
The time of the Nell Gwyn Stakes (also 7f) was just over a second faster than the Free Handicap, and winner Music Show overcame a troubled run to give connections real hope that the 1,000 Guineas is within her grasp.
This race was not easy to assess as several of the prominent finishers had little previous form. I reckon Music Show has run to her official rating of 110, with runner-up Blue Maiden improving 3lb to 105, and the once-raced Principal Role running to 100 in 3rd (she was rated 82 after winning her sole juvenile outing.)
The last three 1,000 Guineas winners have performed to 114 (Ghanaati), 113 (Natagora) and 119 (Finsceal Beo) in the race, so one would imagine that Music Show will need to improve in the next two weeks. Then again, who is to say she won’t do precisely that?
The Racing Post Breezeupbonus.com Craven (7f again) produced the most eye-catching performance of all the trials when Elusive Pimpernel pulled four lengths clear of his rivals.
The main problem when deciding performance figures for this race centres on the third and fourth horses who both came into the race rated 100. Fourth placed Dubawi Phantom did record a figure of 104 when third in last year’s Solario Stakes at Sandown and it's not unreasonable to assume that he reproduced that here.
Elusive Pimpernel looked value for slightly further than his victory margin and that's shown in his new figure of 117 (thus allowing 10lbs for four lengths). However, as eye-catching as John Dunlop’s colt undoubtedly was, it's hard to forget how readily he was put in his place by St Nicholas Abbey (124) in last season’s Racing Post Trophy.
The outcome of the Dubai Duty Free Fred Darling Stakes (7f) changed dramatically inside the final furlong. Lady Of The Desert burst into the lead entering the final furlong and for a few strides it looked just a matter of how far would she win, but her stamina seemed to falter and she finished only third behind Puff and Habaayib. I have moved Puff’s rating by a pound to 108 while Habaayib stays unchanged on 107.
The most puzzling of all the trials was the Bathwick Tyres Greenham in which Dick Turpin just beat his strongly fancied stablemate Canford Cliffs - and I have seldom seen a trainer less happy after a Group race winner than Richard Hannon on Saturday afternoon.
Dick Turpin beat two 118 rated horses, although I don’t think either ran to that figure here, in a time just over a second faster than the Fred Darling and his new rating of 117 clearly marks him as a high-class performer.
However, he looks likely to take in either the Irish or French 2000 Guineas while his beaten stablemate Canford Cliffs takes on Elusive Pimpernel, St Nicholas Abbey et al back at Newmarket in two weeks time.
FAST COMPANY FOR EQUIANO
With most people’s attention (flat-wise at least) geared towards the Guineas trials it was a fairly low-key week in the sprinting world, writes Stewart Copeland.
However it was pleasing to see the Barry Hills-trained five-year-old, Equiano, register his first success since the King’s Stand at Royal Ascot 2008.
Narrowly touched off in the same Group 1 event last year, Equiano went one better in the six-furlong listed Abernant Stakes at Newmarket’s Craven meeting. Blazing the trail from the off, he hung on in a desperately close finish by a short-head from Mullionmileanhour, with Doncaster Rover a further two lengths back in third.
Even though this couldn’t be considered a particularly strong renewal of the race, Equiano’s rating of 108 is at least on a par with the pick of his form last season.
Rated 116 at his peak in 2008, Equiano left the impression despite his success at Newmarket that he’d be suited by a return to the minimum trip.
It remains to be seen if he can scale the same heights he achieved as a three-year-old thoug, andh the King’s Stand is his main aim again according to connections.
ONE-WAY TICKET TO THE TOWER?
"I Suppose we'll have to wait and see what the handicapper makes of him," said trainer Michael Bell after Tactician's win in the RacingUK.Com Maiden Stakes over 1m3f at Newbury on Saturday, "but as long as he's sensible with his rating, something like the King George V Handicap at Royal Ascot could be in the offing." wrotes blog editor Neil Young
As the BHA handicapper responsible for assessing this particular event (run until last year as the Peter Smith Memorial) I hope that I've indeed been "sensible" in my analysis of the contest and the winner's form.
And just in case I felt like an uncharacteristic laxness in this regard, the Racing Post - which reported Bell's comments in its Newbury dispatch from Andrew King - carried a large, full colour Edward Whitaker photo of Bell and Tactician across the top of its page, accompanied by (right-to-left), winning jockey Hayley Turner, the colt's (unidentified) lad, and the victorious owner... Her Majesty The Queen.
Each of them are peering straight into the camera with expressions that combine elation and caution to varying degrees (without getting too anthropomorphical about it, Tactician's demeanour is one of justifiably haughty pride).
So, not only is Tactician owned by our dear monarch, but the race that connections have in mind is at Her Majesty's "own" meeting, and named after her own beloved grandfather (he famously doted on her, she in turn called him "Grandpa England"). Not much pressure on me there, then!
Of course, as an official BHA handicapper I must treat all runners the same, whether or not they are owned by royalty or a (hypothetical) dustman from Aberdeen - and I say that as the son of a (retired) Sunderland coal-miner!
Tactician, who was placed a promising second (behind Coordinated Cut) and disappointing fourth (behind Kalypso King) on his two starts as a juvenile, is clearly a highly promising three-year-old - though the choice of Royal Ascot engagements, and the fact that he isn't entered in the Dante, suggests he was never regarded as likely to follow in the hoofprints of his Derby-winning sire Motivator.
It's hard to know exactly what he achieved on Saturday, as the second and third (All Action and Momkinzain) were making their racecourse debuts, the fourth (Total Command) was having his first start for 175 days, and the other three runners were likewise making their seasonal reappearances.
My initial view was to have Total Command improving a few pounds from his last start to 78, which would have put Tactician on 85+ (my instinct was to keep the latter out of 0-85 handicaps for now.) However, looking back at the last five renewals of this particular maiden - checking the "race standards" is often a helpful guide for the handicapper when there isn't much form to go on - I noted that the winners were rated 90+, 90, 88+, 96+ and 96, the runners-up 83, 89, 80, 92 and 96+.
It seems likely, taking everything into account, that while Tactician can't be rated as highly as his predecessors Sight Unseen, Tighnabruaich, Western Adventure, Hala Bek and Gold Gun, this year's renewal might turn out to have a little more strength in depth than previous runnings.
And so I have ended up with performance ratings of 87+ for Tactician, 85 for All Action and Momkinzain, and 80 for Total Command - the form of the latter's defeat to Godolphin's Multames last October received a boost elsewhere on the Newbury card when third-placed Latansaa filled a similar position in the classy-looking one-mile maiden won by Colonel Carter.
Given the style of his victory and the way he stretched out in the final furlong, I'm allotting Tactician an initial BHA rating of 89 (which is roughly what one would expect of a horse capable of running, as he did, to 82 on debut).
Only time will tell if this is "sensible" or not. Of course, If connections disagree with my assessment I may well get a polite phone-call in the next few days - from Mr Bell, that is, rather than the owner!
It's all in the genes...or is it?
BHA Director of Equine Science & Welfare Tim Morris on mapping of genes in racehorses
There has been a long debate on nature versus nurture; do the characterises of a living thing stem from how it’s made or from the environment in which it exists? The discovery of the principles of how traits are passed to offspring (heredity), and then the actual mechanism (via genes) might have given the nature side of the argument the upper hand.
However, consider two identical twins separated at birth, one bought up on Dover and one in Calais and then reunited at an age of twenty. With different languages, culture, religion, nutrition, and sports involvement who would like to say they really are identical twins and that it is all down to their genes?
So what should we make of the 'discovery' of the 'speed gene' in racehorses? Let’s take a step back and explain some of the key concepts, how it is that we can study them, and why we should do.
Take a look at this leaflet that summarises a British Horseracing project to look at the association of genes and disease. It defines some key terms, explains how the mapping of all horse genes now allows us to see which are associated with disease, and then what diseases are being studied.
Unlike the Irish research into the association between genes and performance, the British, and other, research focuses on disease.
Why is this? The first is an understandable conservatism, a healthy concern for unforeseen consequences. There are examples of how excessive selection for a small number of traits can lead to considerable problems.
The second is a wider concern in thoroughbred breeding that a particular science or technology should not be concrecentrated in the hands of a few, whether by patent protection or financial clout; hardly the basis for a broad based and exciting crop of racehorses.
Finally there is the recognition that an unhealthy horse cannot be a fast horse, and that disease is also bad welfare.
The British Horseracing project to look at the association of genes and disease has now finished, and it is being reported and scientifically assessed this year under the auspices of the veterinary research function of the Horserace Betting Levy Board. So watch this space.
One big question that is now being faced by all the research into the association between genes and disease, or speed, or whatever, is whether it’s is likely to work? Will we find what genes cause speed or disease? At present, despite high initial hopes, there is a growing scepticism that it easily will. So far despite some massive funding into human disease, many traits are proving remarkably resistant to full genetic definition.
Does this means that genes are less relevant? No, but that what appears a simple code is actually far more complex, and prone to variations in expression, including those resulting from environmental interactions.
So the nature versus nurture debate is not dead, genes are important, but don’t (yet?) bet your savings on a horse’s genetic profile!
Thursday 15 April 2010
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