Tuesday 16 February 2010

ipadio: Phil Smith on the Grand National Weights

Handicappers Blog: All roads lead to Cheltenham


16th February 2010- MASTERSTROKE
He's back! Despite doing his utmost to demolish the final fence and fire Ruby Walsh into orbit, Master Minded demonstrated dramatically at Newbury on Saturday that he is still the outstanding two-mile chaser in training.

Sure, you can pick holes in the Game Spirit form- runner-up Mahogany Blaze made two shuddering blunders and Voy Por Ustedes, the second-favourite, now clearly needs further than an extended two miles- but Master Minded travelled with all his old zest and did more than enough to convince me that he is well worthy of his lofty mark of 178.

Indeed, there were exciting signs of that devastating performer of two years ago and I wouldn't (if I was allowed to!) bet against him nudging his mark back into the 180's at Cheltenham next month.

Not surprisingly, bookmakers immediately slashed Master Minded, who had jumped spectacularly until over-exuberance so nearly caused his last-fence downfall, to odds-on to clinch his Champion Chase hat-trick.

On ratings, he holds a clear edge over those closest to him in the Cheltenham market with Kalahari King and Twist Magic on 166 and 173 respectively.


16th February 2010- SHORT RUN FOR LONG RUN
Meanwhile, at Warwick, another outstanding French import, Long Run, confirmed that he will be a major Festival force, more than likely joining stable-mate Punchestowns in the three-mile RSA Chase.

Long Run, a Grade 1 winner over hurdles and fences in his native land, did not need to run to the 161 of his scintillating Feltham Chase win at Kempton on Boxing Day to follow-up in Warwick's Grade 2 Kingmaker Chase.

It was a bold experiment by Nicky Henderson to drop the five-year-old down to two-miles on Saturday, a ploy which never looked likely to backfire, though front-running King Edmund (140) put up a bold show until outstayed in the home straight, eventually losing second place to the promising multiple Flat and hurdles winner Joe Jo Star (137).

16th February 2010- GET ME TO CHELTENHAM
What is usually one of the most competitive handicap hurdles of the season, Newbury’s Totesport Trophy, was dominated by the last flight by two horses.

It was the runner up, Ronaldo des Mottes (up 9 to 151) who got the better jump but Get Me Out Of Here was quickly making light of that final flight error to power clear halfway up the run-in. The winner returned with an injury but if he manages to recover in time for Cheltenham his new mark of 150 (up 15) puts him right in the mix for the meeting’s opening race- the Supreme Novices' Hurdle.

Manyriverstocross (up 3 to 138) finished strongly in third suggesting that a return to further might suit, even in such a truly run race. Others who lost little in defeat were the luckless Oldrik and the still relatively inexperienced Any Given Day who was travelling well on the outside early in the home straight before the leaders got away from him. Both of their marks remain unchanged.

16th February 2010- PRESTBURY PLANS
Fiendish Flame could head for the Jewson after his five-length win over southern raider Working Title at Musselburgh, though whether the course at Cheltenham will suit the game front runner so well is questionable. With the second and also the third, Door Boy, both fairly solid-looking in terms of their ratings, a new mark of 142 for Fiendish Flame is readily justifiable.

At Lingfield, Bakbenscher found less pressure on his somewhat dubious jumping due to omitted fences and a modest pace, and he duly landed his second chase success. Two and a half lengths clear of Chariot Charger, who was in receipt of 6 lb, Bakbenshcer is now up to 143. That mark still leaves him some way short of what will be required should he take up his RSA Chase entry, so again connections may be better off going to one of the handicaps at the Festival.

It's been a while since Duc de Regniere competed in the novice chasing division, but he's not had much racing all the same and remains on 148 following a comfortable win in a graduation chase at Kempton, where his record now reads four wins and a second from five starts.

Graded bumpers are few and far between, so the performance of Al Ferof in the grade 2 event which took place at Newbury should be noted. On his first run for Paul Nicholls, Al Ferof stayed on well to keep Made In Time, recently purchased by J P McManus, at bay by five lengths.

A figure of 128 would mean a tilt at the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham would be entirely justified, though plans for the five-year-old are unclear.

Tuesday 9 February 2010

Handicappers Blog: From Punchestown to the Kalahari


Several Cheltenham pointers for you this week, writes blog-editor Neil Young, as the National Hunt season's showcase gallops inexorably closer.

PLEASED AS PUNCH
The RSA Chase at Cheltenham is set to be a mouth-watering affair, writes Stephen Hindle, and Punchestowns continued on the right path to that event with an ultimately impressive victory in the Grade 2 Totepool Challengers Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase (2m4f110y) at Sandown on Saturday.

A top-class hurdler (officially rated 173 at his peak) Punchestowns is now two from two over fences. This latest win did come with a scare, however, as Nicky Henderson's charge made a blunder at the downhill fence leading to the back straight.

The error left him with a fair amount of ground to make up on the front running Tchico Polos, but make it up he did and in the end Punchestowns was eight lengths in front of that rival at the line without having to be fully extended.

Tchico Polos is a consistent 147, so it made sense to leave him on that mark. I added a little extra to Punchestowns due to the ease of his victory and as a result he comes out at 159, which is one of the best performances in the novice division this season.

Except that one blemish, Punchestowns’ jumping was sound and he clearly has a leading chance in the RSA - where his rivals will of course include 160-rated stablemate Long Run.

KALAHARI KRACKER
As taking performances go, it was hard to imagine a more exhilarating comeback than that put up by Kalahari King at Doncaster on Saturday, writes John De Moraville.

Off the track since his Sandown second to Twist Magic last April and expected to benefit appreciably from the outing, Kalahari King could be named the winner a long way from home in the valuable Blue Square Handicap Chase (2m110y).

In what on paper looked a wide-open contest, Kalahari King, partnered by the imperturbable Graham Lee, put paid to his rivals with a telling burst of speed, notching in the process a career-best performance of 166.

Ferdy Murphy's stable-star narrowly missed the bulls-eye last season when short-headed by Forpadydeplasterer in the Arkle, but Saturday's display - under top-weight in one of the hottest two-mile handicaps of the season - stamped him as a serious contender for the Queen Mother Champion Chase.

On official BHA ratings, Kalahari King still has 12lb to find with the hat-trick seeking Master Minded (178) and 7lb with Twist Magic (173). However, whereas Kalahari King is in the form of his life with scope for further improvement, question-marks do still hang over both those Paul Nicholls stars.

Has Master Minded fully recovered from his serious autumn setback? Can the highly-strung Twist Magic translate his swashbuckling Sandown and Ascot form to the nerve-shredding atmosphere and unforgiving undulations of Cheltenham in March? Time will tell!