Wednesday 31 March 2010
Monday 29 March 2010
Thoughts from High Holborn- 'Frontrunner Page News'
The inaugural episode of Head of Communications Paul Struthers' blog
Had a shocker this morning. Changed the time on my Iphone on Saturday night and all was fine yesterday, but got to the station in Andover this morning to catch the 7.05 train to see that the time was actually 6am. The poxy phone must have knocked itself forward again overnight last night, which is irritating to say the least, so I’m now on the 6.25am train to London.
This week starts as well as the last one ended. A little birdie told me I had hit the front pages on Friday, though any excitement was shortlived, when I discovered it was only the front page of the Madgwick Chronicles, or ‘Frontrunner Newsletter’ as it’s more commonly known. It’s a bit like a racing version of Private Eye, in that it’s written in English. I’m not sure what I’ve done to upset the bespectacled IT programmer who writes it, but he sure doesn’t like me.
Apparently I didn’t make the shortlist for the Director of Comms role when it was advertised over two years ago. That is true, but it’s where the accuracy of the story begins and ends. Apparently my boss, Nic Coward, told me the job “wasn’t for me.” That’s simply not true.
Secondly, I apparently failed to communicate any comment after the collapse of the Miles Rodgers trial. Midgwick might not have liked what I’d had to say, but I remember reading our statement live on Sky News surrounded by racing’s finest scribes, then answered a load of questions. Fair comment perhaps to say I was useless, but it’s absolute tosh to say I communicated no message.
Midgwick then goes on about our BHA Xtra service at Cheltenham, which no one knew about apparently or could find on our website even if they did know about it. That’s strange, I thought, because we press released it and, whilst admittedly our website may not be the easiest to navigate, you could access it from the home page, so I'm surprised an IT specialist couldn't access it. Moreover, we had over 40,000 ‘listens’ to the audio clips uploaded at Cheltenham, mostly by Robin, our online editor (he of weak bladder fame, for those that read my blog at Cheltenham last year). It would be irritating if it wasn’t so amusingly inaccurate.
Last week was busy, particularly as Midgwick points out I’d been out of the office the previous week at Cheltenham. Speaking of The Festival, it was a fantastic week with phenomenal coverage in the lead up to the week generally, and in particular the Gold Cup, and following Imperial Commander’s seriously impressive victory. Whilst I was personally disappointed that Denman and Kauto hadn’t won, I was pleased the Commander won, not because I’d backed him but because his owners – ‘Our Friends in the North’ – were so gracious and easy to deal with over the alleged ‘fuss’ over the Betfair Chase photograph scandal-that-never-was.
Simon Claisse and his team did a fantastic job with the ground over a frighteningly difficult winter, and it’s just a shame Hurdlegate and Binoculargate got in the way a little. On the former, Simon’s publicly admitted he should have informed the public sooner and has apologised. I found out about it on the Sunday before Cheltenham when a colleague told me I might get a call from the Racing Post. I have to say, it never crossed my mind about there being any possible issue. There’s no doubt in my mind that it should have been communicated earlier, and of course the shape of certain races might well have been different, but I don’t believe people who fancied Get Me Out Of Here, for example, wouldn’t have backed him if they’d known about it sooner. That being the case, it may well go some way to explaining why I’m such an average (ie rubbish) punter.
As for Binocular, he was never scratched from the race, so there was always a chance he would run. The betting was checked and the exchanges had no integrity concerns, none of the High Street bookies complained to us about being stung, and our view was that Nicky Henderson was simply trying to be helpful in a changing situation.
Events at Lingfield then took over the headlines and we’ve dealt with it swiftly and the hearing is today. Some questioned why the police were not involved, and the simple explanation was that the individual concerned was bound by the Rules of Racing so the Stewards were able to deal with it, and those involved could have called the police themselves. I spoke to several of those involved, including Elna Bright’s owner Peter Crate. It surprised me when he said that I was the only person who’d asked how the horse was, but fortunately it’s not a serious injury and Elna Bright will only need a few weeks off.
I had an entertaining email exchange with a member of the public who thought we were burying our heads in the sand by not calling the police. I pointed out to her that we don’t call the police on the rare occasion when jockeys hit each other, not did we after the incident at Beverley involving Kieren all those years ago. She said this was different and referred to Duncan Ferguson being jailed for his infamous onfield headbutt. I thought that was hypocritical, and declined the opportunity to reply saying that the FA now have an agreement with the police that they will deal with onfield violence between players. We agreed to disagree, though I’m surprised we even agreed on that.
Talking of entertaining, Colin Russell elucidated for the second time on his race planning ideas in the Racing Post. I felt like I’d been transported back to 2004 with his comments about racecourses in close proximity racing on the same day. Perhaps he thinks we made up the OFT agreement, whereby we had to do away with the old 50-mile rule. I wouldn’t mind so much but it’s not like he rang us up to check the facts, nor did he ring Doncaster or Wetherby to get their views on why they would wish to race on the same day. When I lived north of the Trent the phones always seemed to work fine, but perhaps something’s changed since I moved down South.
Had a shocker this morning. Changed the time on my Iphone on Saturday night and all was fine yesterday, but got to the station in Andover this morning to catch the 7.05 train to see that the time was actually 6am. The poxy phone must have knocked itself forward again overnight last night, which is irritating to say the least, so I’m now on the 6.25am train to London.
This week starts as well as the last one ended. A little birdie told me I had hit the front pages on Friday, though any excitement was shortlived, when I discovered it was only the front page of the Madgwick Chronicles, or ‘Frontrunner Newsletter’ as it’s more commonly known. It’s a bit like a racing version of Private Eye, in that it’s written in English. I’m not sure what I’ve done to upset the bespectacled IT programmer who writes it, but he sure doesn’t like me.
Apparently I didn’t make the shortlist for the Director of Comms role when it was advertised over two years ago. That is true, but it’s where the accuracy of the story begins and ends. Apparently my boss, Nic Coward, told me the job “wasn’t for me.” That’s simply not true.
Secondly, I apparently failed to communicate any comment after the collapse of the Miles Rodgers trial. Midgwick might not have liked what I’d had to say, but I remember reading our statement live on Sky News surrounded by racing’s finest scribes, then answered a load of questions. Fair comment perhaps to say I was useless, but it’s absolute tosh to say I communicated no message.
Midgwick then goes on about our BHA Xtra service at Cheltenham, which no one knew about apparently or could find on our website even if they did know about it. That’s strange, I thought, because we press released it and, whilst admittedly our website may not be the easiest to navigate, you could access it from the home page, so I'm surprised an IT specialist couldn't access it. Moreover, we had over 40,000 ‘listens’ to the audio clips uploaded at Cheltenham, mostly by Robin, our online editor (he of weak bladder fame, for those that read my blog at Cheltenham last year). It would be irritating if it wasn’t so amusingly inaccurate.
Last week was busy, particularly as Midgwick points out I’d been out of the office the previous week at Cheltenham. Speaking of The Festival, it was a fantastic week with phenomenal coverage in the lead up to the week generally, and in particular the Gold Cup, and following Imperial Commander’s seriously impressive victory. Whilst I was personally disappointed that Denman and Kauto hadn’t won, I was pleased the Commander won, not because I’d backed him but because his owners – ‘Our Friends in the North’ – were so gracious and easy to deal with over the alleged ‘fuss’ over the Betfair Chase photograph scandal-that-never-was.
Simon Claisse and his team did a fantastic job with the ground over a frighteningly difficult winter, and it’s just a shame Hurdlegate and Binoculargate got in the way a little. On the former, Simon’s publicly admitted he should have informed the public sooner and has apologised. I found out about it on the Sunday before Cheltenham when a colleague told me I might get a call from the Racing Post. I have to say, it never crossed my mind about there being any possible issue. There’s no doubt in my mind that it should have been communicated earlier, and of course the shape of certain races might well have been different, but I don’t believe people who fancied Get Me Out Of Here, for example, wouldn’t have backed him if they’d known about it sooner. That being the case, it may well go some way to explaining why I’m such an average (ie rubbish) punter.
As for Binocular, he was never scratched from the race, so there was always a chance he would run. The betting was checked and the exchanges had no integrity concerns, none of the High Street bookies complained to us about being stung, and our view was that Nicky Henderson was simply trying to be helpful in a changing situation.
Events at Lingfield then took over the headlines and we’ve dealt with it swiftly and the hearing is today. Some questioned why the police were not involved, and the simple explanation was that the individual concerned was bound by the Rules of Racing so the Stewards were able to deal with it, and those involved could have called the police themselves. I spoke to several of those involved, including Elna Bright’s owner Peter Crate. It surprised me when he said that I was the only person who’d asked how the horse was, but fortunately it’s not a serious injury and Elna Bright will only need a few weeks off.
I had an entertaining email exchange with a member of the public who thought we were burying our heads in the sand by not calling the police. I pointed out to her that we don’t call the police on the rare occasion when jockeys hit each other, not did we after the incident at Beverley involving Kieren all those years ago. She said this was different and referred to Duncan Ferguson being jailed for his infamous onfield headbutt. I thought that was hypocritical, and declined the opportunity to reply saying that the FA now have an agreement with the police that they will deal with onfield violence between players. We agreed to disagree, though I’m surprised we even agreed on that.
Talking of entertaining, Colin Russell elucidated for the second time on his race planning ideas in the Racing Post. I felt like I’d been transported back to 2004 with his comments about racecourses in close proximity racing on the same day. Perhaps he thinks we made up the OFT agreement, whereby we had to do away with the old 50-mile rule. I wouldn’t mind so much but it’s not like he rang us up to check the facts, nor did he ring Doncaster or Wetherby to get their views on why they would wish to race on the same day. When I lived north of the Trent the phones always seemed to work fine, but perhaps something’s changed since I moved down South.
Friday 26 March 2010
Thursday 25 March 2010
Wednesday 24 March 2010
Tuesday 23 March 2010
Handicappers Blog: Cheltenham Special
This week's blog is all about Cheltenham, highlighting the top performances of the week.
Blog editor Neil Young
2010 CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL ROLL OF HONOUR
The BHA Handicappers' highest-rated performances at the National Hunt Festival
Imperial Commander and Denman lead the way, and Binocular posts the best Champion Hurdle performance since Istabraq, writes blog-editor Neil Young.
However, the official handicappers were also particularly impressed by the outstanding form shown by Big Buck's in the World Hurdle and Big Zeb in the Champion Chase - that makes no less than five superb horses posting figures of 170 or more.
There was real strength in depth on show at this year's Festival, with 18 different horses posting 160+ efforts. Here are the top 20 - actually 21, including "ties".
| RANK | HORSE | RATING | RACE | TRAINER | AGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | IMPERIAL COMMANDER | 185 | Gold Cup | N.Twiston-Davies | 9 |
| 2. | DENMAN | 178 | Gold Cup | P.Nicholls | 10 |
| 3= | BIG BUCK'S | 174 | World Hurdle | P.Nicholls | 7 |
| 3= | BIG ZEB | 174 | Champion Chase | C.Murphy* | 9 |
| 5. | BINOCULAR | 173 | Champion Hurdle | N.Henderson | 6 |
| 6. | KHYBER KIM | 169 | Champion Hurdle (2nd) | N.Twiston-Davies | 8 |
| 7. | ALBERTAS RUN | 168 | Ryanair Chase | J.O'Neill | 9 |
| 8. | FORPADYDEPLASTERER | 167 | Champion Chase (2nd) | T.Cooper* | 8 |
| 9. | TIME FOR RUPERT | 166 | World Hurdle (2nd) | P.Webber | 6 |
| 10= | KALAHARI KING | 164 | Champion Chase (3rd) | F.Murphy | 9 |
| 10= | POQUELIN | 164 | Ryanair Chase (2nd) | P.Nicholls | 7 |
| 12= | MASTER MINDED | 163 | Champion Chase (4th) | P.Nicholls | 7 |
| 12= | ZAYNAR | 163 | Champion Hurdle (3rd) | N.Henderson | 5 |
| 14= | CELESTIAL HALO | 161 | Champion Hurdle (4th) | P.Nicholls | 6 |
| 14= | STARLUCK | 161 | Champion Hurdle (5th) | A.Fleming | 5 |
| 16= | DEEP PURPLE | 160 | Ryanair Chase (4th) | E.Williams | 9 |
| 16= | GARDE CHAMPETRE | 160 | Glenfarclas Cross Country (5th) | E.Bolger* | 11 |
| 16= | OH CRICK | 160 | Champion Chase (5th) | A.King | 7 |
| 19. | WEAPON'S AMNESTY | 159 | RSA Chase | C.Byrnes* | 7 |
| 20= | FRENCH OPERA | 158 | Grand Annual Chase (2nd) | N.Henderson | 7 |
| 20= | SIZING EUROPE | 158 | Arkle Chase | H. De Bromhead* | 8 |
* Irish-trained.
Compiled by Neil Young.
End-of-season ratings subject to ratification by Anglo-Irish Jumps Classification meeting.
MARTIN GREENWOOD on BIG BUCK'S, PEDDLERS CROSS and BERTIES DREAM
IF anybody out there finally needed any convincing that Big Buck’s is the real deal, then his high-octane performance last Thursday must surely banish any doubts. I've maintained throughout the season in this blog that it was Big Buck's race to lose, and there wasn't a single second when he looked anything but the winner of his second World Hurdle, proving 5/6 to be a very generous SP indeed.
Travelling extremely well throughout, he sauntered up to the leaders in imperious style and, with only the timing of his delivery to worry about (Big Buck's is a proven idler when hitting the front), the result never looked in question the moment Ruby Walsh put his mount's head in front at the last. Again "dossing" when clearly winning, the three and a half length winning margin definitely undersold his superiority.
Bearing that in mind, it shouldn't be looked at in a negative way when I suggest his performance was worth a figure of 170+ (backed up by race standards and by taking the view that Cheltenham specialist Powerstation ran the same race as in 2009, again back in third).
The bare result simply doesn't do justice to the manner in which Big Buck's treated his rivals. Rated 174 after Cheltenham and Aintree in 2009, to my mind the champ is at least as good this year, and it wouldn't surprise me at all were he to improve beyond that figure - if he could be tested to the full.
Phrases such as "failed chaser" are still banded around when this horse is discussed, but it's now the time to recognise Big Buck's as a racing machine: a true champion who is unbeaten in all seven hurdle races here, and the highest rated hurdler I've had the privilege to assess in the seven years I have worked as an official handicapper.
Several horses failed to run to form in the World Hurdle, notably Karabak, Tidal Bay and Sentry Duty, but one horse deserving a positive mention is Time For Rupert who has improved a total of 21 lbs in his second season.
Pulling clear of the remainder and only giving best to a living legend like Big Buck's is no mean effort and his new mark of 166 suggests it is only a matter of time before he finds the winner's enclosure again - his main problem of course will be avoiding Big Buck's!
While even I will agree that ratings aren't everything, if used correctly and consistently they are the best guide to assessing merits of horses year on year. So when one's ratings come up trumps on the big days, it is always a feather in the cap for the BHA's handicapping team.
A good case in point was the Neptune Investment Management Baring Bingham Novices Hurdle (Wednesday). Going into the race, we had Peddlers Cross and Reve de Sivola the two top-rated, separated by two pounds.
Reve de Sivola’s rating looked very solid in the context of this season’s novices, but the Peddlers Cross rating was much trickier because it was based on a very easy win in a four-runner race at Haydock. After much deliberation at the time (with my colleague Mark Olley) we settled on a figure of 148.
As it happened the result worked out almost to the pound, with Peddlers Cross defeating Reve de Sivola by a length and a half. For the time being I am going to leave the ratings the same, though race standards and working through some of the runners behind the pair could suggest the race should be slightly higher.
Hopefully, Aintree will provide me with further evidence before I have to come up with the final end-of-season ratings.
The other staying novice hurdle of the Festival - the Albert Bartlett - took place under more testing circumstances on the Friday.
With a strong pace, rain-affected ground and three miles, it wasn’t a place for the faint hearted, and the field was well strung out in the closing stages.
Irish challenger Berties Dream, who was beaten off a mark of 95 at Southwell when he started this season back in May, has proved a revelation since and ground out victory over Najaf by five lengths, the pair squeezing out Restless Harry, who then fell, at the last.
With numerous horses failing to give their running for one reason or another (notably the solid-looking favourite and top-rated Tell Massini) it isn’t easy to be sure at this stage what the true worth of the form is. Using race standards as an initial guide, Berties Dream has been raised seven pounds to 149 - meaning there is very little between both winners of the staying novices' events at this year’s Festival.
JOHN DE MORAVILLE on BIG ZEB, SIZING EUROPE and FRENCH OPERA
Thanks to a career-best performance of 174 and lack-lustre efforts from two of his main rivals, Big Zeb galloped to a thoroughly deserved victory in the Queen Mother Champion Chase.
Absent were the jumping errors that had blighted the Irish-trained star in the past, as he gave Barry Geraghty an emphatic victory in Cheltenham's second-day highlight to add to the jockey's brace on the great Moscow Flyer.
Big Zeb would surely have beaten Master Minded at Punchestown last spring but for a shuddering last-fence blunder and this time had the measure of the dual champion from some way out.
Ruby Walsh initially blamed the quicker ground for the eclipse of the odds-on favourite, who, in finishing only fourth, posted a disappointing performance figure of 163.
Master Minded's official BHA rating has consequently been dropped from last season's 178 to 173, the mark to which he arguably ran when winning Newbury's Game Spirit Chase on his return from a rib injury last month. Time will tell whether he was suffering from any further affliction last week.
Last year's Arkle Trophy winner Forpadydeplasterer (167) ran the race of his life to take second place ahead of Kalahari King (164), who was never travelling with the fluency that characterised his sparkling come-back success at Doncaster.
In a race that Paul Nicholls will want to forget, Twist Magic (pulled up) showed once and for all that Cheltenham is not the place for him. One cannot take away from him, however, those barnstorming Grade 1 wins at Sandown and Ascot - and his rating remains 173.
Ireland's chances of lifting the Champion Chase again next year had received an earlier boost from the victory of former top-class hurdler Sizing Europe in the Arkle Challenge Trophy.
Unbeaten now in five starts over fences, Sizing Europe (tailed off when hot favourite for the 2008 Champion Hurdle) ran to a chase mark of 158 - one which I suspect could have been higher had he not been left in front too soon after Mad Max almost crashed out at the second-last.
Sizing Europe was being closed down up the hill by the highly promising Somersby (156), who is likely to excel next season over longer distances. Osana (154), the 2008 Champion Hurdle second, kept on gritily to finish third with the giant Mad Max (152+) picking himself off the floor to finish an honourable fourth ahead of shorter-priced stable-mate Riverside Theatre (148). The latter, badly outpaced and still last over the penultimate fence, ran a strange race looking at one stage like tailing off.
Meanwhile, don't forget French Opera - another of Nicky Henderson's exciting team of novice chasers - who covered himself in glory when only nailed close home by Pigeon Island under top-weight in the fiercely competitive Grand Annual Handicap.
In recording a career-best 158, French Opera gave notice that he would surely have gone very close in the Arkle if taking up that conditions-race engagement.
DAVID DICKINSON on BINOCULAR, MENORAH and SOLDATINO
Binocular looked a decidedly above-average winner of the Smurfit Kappa Champion Hurdle - indeed, this was the best performance in the event for almost exactly a decade.
Produced to lead before the last he ran home three and a half lengths clear of Khyber Kim, who came close to initiating what would have become a famous Festival double for the Nigel Twiston-Davies yard (three days before Imperial Commander's Gold Cup).
Starluck has been used as a benchmark to rate the race - and, using the 161 the former ran to at Kempton, Binocular comes out at 173. As such he is the first two-mile hurdler to run above 170 since the great Istabraq - while Khyber Kim's 169 would have been good enough to land six of the previous eight renewals of this great contest (the exceptions: Rooster Booster and Hardy Eustace, both 170, in 2003 and 2004).
Somewhat unusually for a championship race this links very closely to handicap form as Kempton fifth, Pepe Simo, was used as the benchmark for the Imperial Cup three days earlier.
Handicap form is also prominent in the handicapping of the Spinal Research Supreme Novices Hurdle with Totesport winner Get Me Out of Here (150) used as the benchmark and Menorah therefore rated 151, four pounds above the average for the race.
The JCB Triumph Hurdle showed that the British and Irish juveniles are far from outstanding with the ex French Soldatino confirming the 148 figure he ran to on his British debut at Kempton.
Returning from a winter break, Barizan's trail-blazing effort looked likely to succeed until ten strides before the last and might have been the one result all week that could have been different with the final hurdle in its traditional spot.
Interestingly, Barizan was the top-rated juvenile until beaten by Pistolet Noir at Cheltenham's Open meeting - but his 146 here represents a career best.
The superiority of the French juveniles was already apparent after the Fred Winter Handicap on Wednesday. Horses who had been assessed partly on the their French form before being imported (two to Britain, one to Ireland) filled three of the first four places and included runaway winner Sanctuaire, whose mark rises 20 to 147, just a pound behind Soldatino.
STEPHEN HINDLE on ALBERTAS RUN, CUE CARD and GREAT ENDEAVOUR
The best performance I rated at the festival was Albertas Run - appropriately, he won my only Grade 1 Chase of the week, The Ryanair Festival Trophy.
A regular in the top chases, Albertas Run was tasting success at Grade 1 level for the first time since taking the 2008 Royal & Sun Alliance Chase.
He’s shown a high level of form around two and a half miles this season, having earlier won the Grade 2 Amlin 1965 Chase at Ascot, but this was probably the best effort of his career. He held off the challenges of Poquelin and J’Y Vole, who admittedly made things slightly easier by getting in each other’s way, to win by four and a half lengths.
With Poquelin being an improving type and J’y Vole having run to 161 on our figures on her previous start, I put up Albertas Run to a new mark of 168 and also raised Poquelin a few pounds, to 164.
J’Y Vole was receiving the seven pound mares allowance and I actually had her running a few pounds below form, though she did get messed around during the race and conditions were different to Gowran Park, where she had won in testing conditions last time out.
My first race of the Cheltenham Festival was the final one on Wednesday’s card, namely the Weatherbys Champion Bumper. Usually an Irish benefit, this year’s renewal saw the first two home trained in Britain, though really the race was all about one horse, winner Cue Card.
Once-raced winners at Fontwell don’t make a habit of winning next time at the Cheltenham Festival, and it was no surprise to see a 40/1 SP for the Colin Tizzard-trained four-year-old.
However, he was actually one of the higher rated horses on performance figures going into the race, my assessment of his Fontwell victory being a well-above-average 121. Nevertheless, he left that form a long way behind with a thoroughly convincing display, still looking green as he pulled eight lengths clear of Al Ferof.
Rating the race through a few down the field, I came up with a figure of 141 for Cue Card, which is only a couple of pounds lower than my assessment of the much-ballyhooed Dunguib, winner of the Champion Bumper in 2009. It goes without saying that Cue Card is an exciting prospect for novice hurdles in 2010/11.
The only day of the Cheltenham Festival I attend is the Thursday, as I have three races that day. I had some trepidation about taking part in the Handicappers Preview for this very website’s podcast, having been nominated for the role (together with Martin Greenwood) by Head of Handicapping Phil Smith, who presumably would have been too busy eating and drinking to do it himself! I thought it went all right - but subsequent reviews from listeners tell me I "ummed and ahhed" rather a lot.
Copper Bleu couldn’t be accused of any "umming and aahing", as he strode three and a half lengths clear of Othermix to win the Jewson Novices' Handicap Chase, which opened day three.
Copper Bleu had been campaigned at trips around two miles over fences previously, and clearly appreciated the step up in trip. I raised him eight pounds to a new official BHA mark of 147, with Othermix up four to 142 and the third, the Irish-trained The Midnight Club, posting a good effort which I viewed as being worth 142, three pounds higher than the mark he ran off.
The other handicap chase on day three over two miles and five furlongs was the Byrne Group Plate, which is open to non novices as well. With that in mind, you may think it would be a more competitive contest, but beforehand I felt the Jewson was the hotter race and the result of the Byrne Group Plate went a long way to justifying that view, the first two home being novices which couldn’t get into the Jewson.
Great Endeavour seemingly wasn’t fancied to any great extent, carrying owner David Johnson’s third colours, but he stepped up on his previous chasing efforts, which had been on softer ground, and held on to win by a length and a quarter from Sunnyhillboy, who made a lot of ground from the rear but found the line coming too soon to strongly challenge the winner.
I raised the winner seven pounds, one less than the winner of the Jewson to reflect the slightly more competitive nature of that race, but as there was a closer finish to the Byrne Group Plate it saw more horses going up. I put up Sunnyhillboy five pounds to 139, the third From Dawn To Dusk four pounds to 138, while an excellent effort from Mister McGoldrick raised back to 143, having run off 142. Not bad for a thirteen-year-old!
ROUNDUP: SPIRIT RIVER and GARDE CHAMPETRE by blog-editor Neil Young
My esteemed colleagues have been exhaustive and informative in their coverage of the major races, but I hope they won't mind if I shine a little spotlight on a couple of performances which particularly caught my eye.
My idea of a relatively "dark" horse to follow from Cheltenham 2010 would be Spirit River, a hurdler from the Nicky Henderson yard which sent out Binocular and Zaynar to finish first and third in the Champion Hurdle.
Spirit River is much more of a stayer than that pair, as he showed when winning the Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle by four and a half lengths off a rating of 141. Martin Greenwood has raised him 11lb to a new BHA mark of 152 - but as this was only Spirit River's fourth start in this country (he ran thrice in his native France in 2008-9) it seems certain that the best is yet to come.
Somewhat more exposed is the 11-year-old Garde Champetre, trained in Ireland by Enda Bolger and sent off 7/4 favourite to record a second successive win in the cross-country Glenfarclas Handicap Chase over 3m7f.
Running off a career-high rating of 161, the gelding did extremely well to finish within six lengths of shock winner A New Story - especially considering he made a blunder six fences out, and suffered interference in the closing stages.
Head of Handicapping Phil Smith reckons that he ran to 160 in this race - that's five pounds higher than Gold Cup third, Mon Mome!
Head of Handicapping Phil Smith- Cheltenham Special
Head of Handicapping Phil Smith analyses the Gold Cup, some of the other key Cheltenham races and the plight of Irish and Northern trained horses at the Festival
In the early years of this century the Cheltenham Gold Cup was always a notoriously difficult race to rate. It was often slowly run and every year it seemed that a good Handicapper ran way above itself to finish in the money. I am thinking of the likes of Commanche Court, Harbour Pilot, Truckers Tavern and Sir Rembrandt. Inevitably the proximity of these horses limited the rating I could give to the winners.
Over the last three years that has not been the case. There has generally been a good pace to the race and the very good horses have come clear of the good Handicappers. Denman, ably assisted this year by the gallant Carruthers, has seen to that. As a result the class animals have put distance between themselves and the rest of the field and it has been possible to get high ratings for the winners.
This year it seemed to me fairly straightforward to get Imperial Commander to 185. Carruthers is mighty consistent and I have him performing to 155 on three occasions now this season. As a result Imperial Commander who beat him 30 lengths gets to 185.
I have Denman performing to 178, a few pounds off his best but I have left his rating on 182. For now I have left Kauto Star on 193 from the King George but I guess there will be some discussion of that in the Anglo-Irish Jumps Classification Conference in May.
It also enabled me to restore Mon Mome to the figure of 155 which he runs off in the John Smith’s Grand National in a few weeks time. He was in fact due to run at Aintree off a basic rating of 148, but with a 7lb rise due to the 'Aintree Factor', i.e. he has shown form around those Aintree fences.
As it happens Imperial Commander comes out on 185 through a time and weight comparison with Baby Run in the Foxhunters Chase. A comparison between Mon Mome's third this year and Hedgehunter, second a few years ago, is interesting.
Hedgehunter won the John Smith’s Grand National carrying 11st. 1lbs. off a rating off 144 and Mon Mome won it off a rating of 148 carrying 11st. 0lbs. Very similar you will agree. The following year, Hedgehunter was second in the Gold Cup beaten two and a half lengths. This year Mon Mome was third beaten 30 lengths. This is a good illustration of how good horses can get closer to very good horses depending on the pace of the race.
Weapon’s Amnesty surprised a few of the English hotpots in the RSA chase by winning by 7 lengths and is credited with a performance of 159. This makes him a slightly above average winner of the race using a seven year comparison. Denman for example recorded 161 in 2007.
I was fairly pleased with both of my main handicaps at this year’s Festival as there was a close finish to both the William Hill and Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir races. A New Story won the Glenfarclas Cross Country Handicap by two and a half lengths which was further than I would like but there was only eight and a half lengths covering the first seven home which wasn’t too bad.
Every year in the lead up to the Cheltenham Festival a lot of rubbish is written about the fairness of the handicap ratings allocated to horses by people who really should know better. Amazingly after each Festival it goes very quiet when the results invariably show that the BHA Handicappers have shown impartiality to everyone.
Despite a few lean years which you will get with a small statistical sample, Irish trained horses have won 25 Festival Handicaps from 389 runners giving a win percentage of 6.4%.
In all that time the British strike rate has never been above that figure. Perhaps the reality is that we are too lenient on Irish trained horses. We shall certainly investigate that for the 2011 Festival.
In recent years there have been complaints from some (not all) trainers in the North that, just like the Irish, they get a raw deal from us. So what is the truth? Over the last 5 Festivals, Northern trained horses have won 9 handicaps from 140 runners. Coincidentally that gives them a strike rate of 6.4% as well. Again maybe we are being too lenient on horses trained North of the River Trent.
Monday 22 March 2010
Friday 19 March 2010
Thursday 18 March 2010
Wednesday 17 March 2010
Tuesday 16 March 2010
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