Tuesday, 23 March 2010

Head of Handicapping Phil Smith- Cheltenham Special


Head of Handicapping Phil Smith analyses the Gold Cup, some of the other key Cheltenham races and the plight of Irish and Northern trained horses at the Festival

In the early years of this century the Cheltenham Gold Cup was always a notoriously difficult race to rate. It was often slowly run and every year it seemed that a good Handicapper ran way above itself to finish in the money. I am thinking of the likes of Commanche Court, Harbour Pilot, Truckers Tavern and Sir Rembrandt. Inevitably the proximity of these horses limited the rating I could give to the winners.

Over the last three years that has not been the case. There has generally been a good pace to the race and the very good horses have come clear of the good Handicappers. Denman, ably assisted this year by the gallant Carruthers, has seen to that. As a result the class animals have put distance between themselves and the rest of the field and it has been possible to get high ratings for the winners.

This year it seemed to me fairly straightforward to get Imperial Commander to 185. Carruthers is mighty consistent and I have him performing to 155 on three occasions now this season. As a result Imperial Commander who beat him 30 lengths gets to 185.

I have Denman performing to 178, a few pounds off his best but I have left his rating on 182. For now I have left Kauto Star on 193 from the King George but I guess there will be some discussion of that in the Anglo-Irish Jumps Classification Conference in May.

It also enabled me to restore Mon Mome to the figure of 155 which he runs off in the John Smith’s Grand National in a few weeks time. He was in fact due to run at Aintree off a basic rating of 148, but with a 7lb rise due to the 'Aintree Factor', i.e. he has shown form around those Aintree fences.

As it happens Imperial Commander comes out on 185 through a time and weight comparison with Baby Run in the Foxhunters Chase. A comparison between Mon Mome's third this year and Hedgehunter, second a few years ago, is interesting.

Hedgehunter won the John Smith’s Grand National carrying 11st. 1lbs. off a rating off 144 and Mon Mome won it off a rating of 148 carrying 11st. 0lbs. Very similar you will agree. The following year, Hedgehunter was second in the Gold Cup beaten two and a half lengths. This year Mon Mome was third beaten 30 lengths. This is a good illustration of how good horses can get closer to very good horses depending on the pace of the race.

Weapon’s Amnesty surprised a few of the English hotpots in the RSA chase by winning by 7 lengths and is credited with a performance of 159. This makes him a slightly above average winner of the race using a seven year comparison. Denman for example recorded 161 in 2007.

I was fairly pleased with both of my main handicaps at this year’s Festival as there was a close finish to both the William Hill and Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir races. A New Story won the Glenfarclas Cross Country Handicap by two and a half lengths which was further than I would like but there was only eight and a half lengths covering the first seven home which wasn’t too bad.

Every year in the lead up to the Cheltenham Festival a lot of rubbish is written about the fairness of the handicap ratings allocated to horses by people who really should know better. Amazingly after each Festival it goes very quiet when the results invariably show that the BHA Handicappers have shown impartiality to everyone.

Despite a few lean years which you will get with a small statistical sample, Irish trained horses have won 25 Festival Handicaps from 389 runners giving a win percentage of 6.4%.

In all that time the British strike rate has never been above that figure. Perhaps the reality is that we are too lenient on Irish trained horses. We shall certainly investigate that for the 2011 Festival.

In recent years there have been complaints from some (not all) trainers in the North that, just like the Irish, they get a raw deal from us. So what is the truth? Over the last 5 Festivals, Northern trained horses have won 9 handicaps from 140 runners. Coincidentally that gives them a strike rate of 6.4% as well. Again maybe we are being too lenient on horses trained North of the River Trent.

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