This week's blog is all about Cheltenham, highlighting the top performances of the week.
Blog editor Neil Young
2010 CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL ROLL OF HONOUR
The BHA Handicappers' highest-rated performances at the National Hunt Festival
Imperial Commander and Denman lead the way, and Binocular posts the best Champion Hurdle performance since Istabraq, writes blog-editor Neil Young.
However, the official handicappers were also particularly impressed by the outstanding form shown by Big Buck's in the World Hurdle and Big Zeb in the Champion Chase - that makes no less than five superb horses posting figures of 170 or more.
There was real strength in depth on show at this year's Festival, with 18 different horses posting 160+ efforts. Here are the top 20 - actually 21, including "ties".
| RANK | HORSE | RATING | RACE | TRAINER | AGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | IMPERIAL COMMANDER | 185 | Gold Cup | N.Twiston-Davies | 9 |
| 2. | DENMAN | 178 | Gold Cup | P.Nicholls | 10 |
| 3= | BIG BUCK'S | 174 | World Hurdle | P.Nicholls | 7 |
| 3= | BIG ZEB | 174 | Champion Chase | C.Murphy* | 9 |
| 5. | BINOCULAR | 173 | Champion Hurdle | N.Henderson | 6 |
| 6. | KHYBER KIM | 169 | Champion Hurdle (2nd) | N.Twiston-Davies | 8 |
| 7. | ALBERTAS RUN | 168 | Ryanair Chase | J.O'Neill | 9 |
| 8. | FORPADYDEPLASTERER | 167 | Champion Chase (2nd) | T.Cooper* | 8 |
| 9. | TIME FOR RUPERT | 166 | World Hurdle (2nd) | P.Webber | 6 |
| 10= | KALAHARI KING | 164 | Champion Chase (3rd) | F.Murphy | 9 |
| 10= | POQUELIN | 164 | Ryanair Chase (2nd) | P.Nicholls | 7 |
| 12= | MASTER MINDED | 163 | Champion Chase (4th) | P.Nicholls | 7 |
| 12= | ZAYNAR | 163 | Champion Hurdle (3rd) | N.Henderson | 5 |
| 14= | CELESTIAL HALO | 161 | Champion Hurdle (4th) | P.Nicholls | 6 |
| 14= | STARLUCK | 161 | Champion Hurdle (5th) | A.Fleming | 5 |
| 16= | DEEP PURPLE | 160 | Ryanair Chase (4th) | E.Williams | 9 |
| 16= | GARDE CHAMPETRE | 160 | Glenfarclas Cross Country (5th) | E.Bolger* | 11 |
| 16= | OH CRICK | 160 | Champion Chase (5th) | A.King | 7 |
| 19. | WEAPON'S AMNESTY | 159 | RSA Chase | C.Byrnes* | 7 |
| 20= | FRENCH OPERA | 158 | Grand Annual Chase (2nd) | N.Henderson | 7 |
| 20= | SIZING EUROPE | 158 | Arkle Chase | H. De Bromhead* | 8 |
* Irish-trained.
Compiled by Neil Young.
End-of-season ratings subject to ratification by Anglo-Irish Jumps Classification meeting.
MARTIN GREENWOOD on BIG BUCK'S, PEDDLERS CROSS and BERTIES DREAM
IF anybody out there finally needed any convincing that Big Buck’s is the real deal, then his high-octane performance last Thursday must surely banish any doubts. I've maintained throughout the season in this blog that it was Big Buck's race to lose, and there wasn't a single second when he looked anything but the winner of his second World Hurdle, proving 5/6 to be a very generous SP indeed.
Travelling extremely well throughout, he sauntered up to the leaders in imperious style and, with only the timing of his delivery to worry about (Big Buck's is a proven idler when hitting the front), the result never looked in question the moment Ruby Walsh put his mount's head in front at the last. Again "dossing" when clearly winning, the three and a half length winning margin definitely undersold his superiority.
Bearing that in mind, it shouldn't be looked at in a negative way when I suggest his performance was worth a figure of 170+ (backed up by race standards and by taking the view that Cheltenham specialist Powerstation ran the same race as in 2009, again back in third).
The bare result simply doesn't do justice to the manner in which Big Buck's treated his rivals. Rated 174 after Cheltenham and Aintree in 2009, to my mind the champ is at least as good this year, and it wouldn't surprise me at all were he to improve beyond that figure - if he could be tested to the full.
Phrases such as "failed chaser" are still banded around when this horse is discussed, but it's now the time to recognise Big Buck's as a racing machine: a true champion who is unbeaten in all seven hurdle races here, and the highest rated hurdler I've had the privilege to assess in the seven years I have worked as an official handicapper.
Several horses failed to run to form in the World Hurdle, notably Karabak, Tidal Bay and Sentry Duty, but one horse deserving a positive mention is Time For Rupert who has improved a total of 21 lbs in his second season.
Pulling clear of the remainder and only giving best to a living legend like Big Buck's is no mean effort and his new mark of 166 suggests it is only a matter of time before he finds the winner's enclosure again - his main problem of course will be avoiding Big Buck's!
While even I will agree that ratings aren't everything, if used correctly and consistently they are the best guide to assessing merits of horses year on year. So when one's ratings come up trumps on the big days, it is always a feather in the cap for the BHA's handicapping team.
A good case in point was the Neptune Investment Management Baring Bingham Novices Hurdle (Wednesday). Going into the race, we had Peddlers Cross and Reve de Sivola the two top-rated, separated by two pounds.
Reve de Sivola’s rating looked very solid in the context of this season’s novices, but the Peddlers Cross rating was much trickier because it was based on a very easy win in a four-runner race at Haydock. After much deliberation at the time (with my colleague Mark Olley) we settled on a figure of 148.
As it happened the result worked out almost to the pound, with Peddlers Cross defeating Reve de Sivola by a length and a half. For the time being I am going to leave the ratings the same, though race standards and working through some of the runners behind the pair could suggest the race should be slightly higher.
Hopefully, Aintree will provide me with further evidence before I have to come up with the final end-of-season ratings.
The other staying novice hurdle of the Festival - the Albert Bartlett - took place under more testing circumstances on the Friday.
With a strong pace, rain-affected ground and three miles, it wasn’t a place for the faint hearted, and the field was well strung out in the closing stages.
Irish challenger Berties Dream, who was beaten off a mark of 95 at Southwell when he started this season back in May, has proved a revelation since and ground out victory over Najaf by five lengths, the pair squeezing out Restless Harry, who then fell, at the last.
With numerous horses failing to give their running for one reason or another (notably the solid-looking favourite and top-rated Tell Massini) it isn’t easy to be sure at this stage what the true worth of the form is. Using race standards as an initial guide, Berties Dream has been raised seven pounds to 149 - meaning there is very little between both winners of the staying novices' events at this year’s Festival.
JOHN DE MORAVILLE on BIG ZEB, SIZING EUROPE and FRENCH OPERA
Thanks to a career-best performance of 174 and lack-lustre efforts from two of his main rivals, Big Zeb galloped to a thoroughly deserved victory in the Queen Mother Champion Chase.
Absent were the jumping errors that had blighted the Irish-trained star in the past, as he gave Barry Geraghty an emphatic victory in Cheltenham's second-day highlight to add to the jockey's brace on the great Moscow Flyer.
Big Zeb would surely have beaten Master Minded at Punchestown last spring but for a shuddering last-fence blunder and this time had the measure of the dual champion from some way out.
Ruby Walsh initially blamed the quicker ground for the eclipse of the odds-on favourite, who, in finishing only fourth, posted a disappointing performance figure of 163.
Master Minded's official BHA rating has consequently been dropped from last season's 178 to 173, the mark to which he arguably ran when winning Newbury's Game Spirit Chase on his return from a rib injury last month. Time will tell whether he was suffering from any further affliction last week.
Last year's Arkle Trophy winner Forpadydeplasterer (167) ran the race of his life to take second place ahead of Kalahari King (164), who was never travelling with the fluency that characterised his sparkling come-back success at Doncaster.
In a race that Paul Nicholls will want to forget, Twist Magic (pulled up) showed once and for all that Cheltenham is not the place for him. One cannot take away from him, however, those barnstorming Grade 1 wins at Sandown and Ascot - and his rating remains 173.
Ireland's chances of lifting the Champion Chase again next year had received an earlier boost from the victory of former top-class hurdler Sizing Europe in the Arkle Challenge Trophy.
Unbeaten now in five starts over fences, Sizing Europe (tailed off when hot favourite for the 2008 Champion Hurdle) ran to a chase mark of 158 - one which I suspect could have been higher had he not been left in front too soon after Mad Max almost crashed out at the second-last.
Sizing Europe was being closed down up the hill by the highly promising Somersby (156), who is likely to excel next season over longer distances. Osana (154), the 2008 Champion Hurdle second, kept on gritily to finish third with the giant Mad Max (152+) picking himself off the floor to finish an honourable fourth ahead of shorter-priced stable-mate Riverside Theatre (148). The latter, badly outpaced and still last over the penultimate fence, ran a strange race looking at one stage like tailing off.
Meanwhile, don't forget French Opera - another of Nicky Henderson's exciting team of novice chasers - who covered himself in glory when only nailed close home by Pigeon Island under top-weight in the fiercely competitive Grand Annual Handicap.
In recording a career-best 158, French Opera gave notice that he would surely have gone very close in the Arkle if taking up that conditions-race engagement.
DAVID DICKINSON on BINOCULAR, MENORAH and SOLDATINO
Binocular looked a decidedly above-average winner of the Smurfit Kappa Champion Hurdle - indeed, this was the best performance in the event for almost exactly a decade.
Produced to lead before the last he ran home three and a half lengths clear of Khyber Kim, who came close to initiating what would have become a famous Festival double for the Nigel Twiston-Davies yard (three days before Imperial Commander's Gold Cup).
Starluck has been used as a benchmark to rate the race - and, using the 161 the former ran to at Kempton, Binocular comes out at 173. As such he is the first two-mile hurdler to run above 170 since the great Istabraq - while Khyber Kim's 169 would have been good enough to land six of the previous eight renewals of this great contest (the exceptions: Rooster Booster and Hardy Eustace, both 170, in 2003 and 2004).
Somewhat unusually for a championship race this links very closely to handicap form as Kempton fifth, Pepe Simo, was used as the benchmark for the Imperial Cup three days earlier.
Handicap form is also prominent in the handicapping of the Spinal Research Supreme Novices Hurdle with Totesport winner Get Me Out of Here (150) used as the benchmark and Menorah therefore rated 151, four pounds above the average for the race.
The JCB Triumph Hurdle showed that the British and Irish juveniles are far from outstanding with the ex French Soldatino confirming the 148 figure he ran to on his British debut at Kempton.
Returning from a winter break, Barizan's trail-blazing effort looked likely to succeed until ten strides before the last and might have been the one result all week that could have been different with the final hurdle in its traditional spot.
Interestingly, Barizan was the top-rated juvenile until beaten by Pistolet Noir at Cheltenham's Open meeting - but his 146 here represents a career best.
The superiority of the French juveniles was already apparent after the Fred Winter Handicap on Wednesday. Horses who had been assessed partly on the their French form before being imported (two to Britain, one to Ireland) filled three of the first four places and included runaway winner Sanctuaire, whose mark rises 20 to 147, just a pound behind Soldatino.
STEPHEN HINDLE on ALBERTAS RUN, CUE CARD and GREAT ENDEAVOUR
The best performance I rated at the festival was Albertas Run - appropriately, he won my only Grade 1 Chase of the week, The Ryanair Festival Trophy.
A regular in the top chases, Albertas Run was tasting success at Grade 1 level for the first time since taking the 2008 Royal & Sun Alliance Chase.
He’s shown a high level of form around two and a half miles this season, having earlier won the Grade 2 Amlin 1965 Chase at Ascot, but this was probably the best effort of his career. He held off the challenges of Poquelin and J’Y Vole, who admittedly made things slightly easier by getting in each other’s way, to win by four and a half lengths.
With Poquelin being an improving type and J’y Vole having run to 161 on our figures on her previous start, I put up Albertas Run to a new mark of 168 and also raised Poquelin a few pounds, to 164.
J’Y Vole was receiving the seven pound mares allowance and I actually had her running a few pounds below form, though she did get messed around during the race and conditions were different to Gowran Park, where she had won in testing conditions last time out.
My first race of the Cheltenham Festival was the final one on Wednesday’s card, namely the Weatherbys Champion Bumper. Usually an Irish benefit, this year’s renewal saw the first two home trained in Britain, though really the race was all about one horse, winner Cue Card.
Once-raced winners at Fontwell don’t make a habit of winning next time at the Cheltenham Festival, and it was no surprise to see a 40/1 SP for the Colin Tizzard-trained four-year-old.
However, he was actually one of the higher rated horses on performance figures going into the race, my assessment of his Fontwell victory being a well-above-average 121. Nevertheless, he left that form a long way behind with a thoroughly convincing display, still looking green as he pulled eight lengths clear of Al Ferof.
Rating the race through a few down the field, I came up with a figure of 141 for Cue Card, which is only a couple of pounds lower than my assessment of the much-ballyhooed Dunguib, winner of the Champion Bumper in 2009. It goes without saying that Cue Card is an exciting prospect for novice hurdles in 2010/11.
The only day of the Cheltenham Festival I attend is the Thursday, as I have three races that day. I had some trepidation about taking part in the Handicappers Preview for this very website’s podcast, having been nominated for the role (together with Martin Greenwood) by Head of Handicapping Phil Smith, who presumably would have been too busy eating and drinking to do it himself! I thought it went all right - but subsequent reviews from listeners tell me I "ummed and ahhed" rather a lot.
Copper Bleu couldn’t be accused of any "umming and aahing", as he strode three and a half lengths clear of Othermix to win the Jewson Novices' Handicap Chase, which opened day three.
Copper Bleu had been campaigned at trips around two miles over fences previously, and clearly appreciated the step up in trip. I raised him eight pounds to a new official BHA mark of 147, with Othermix up four to 142 and the third, the Irish-trained The Midnight Club, posting a good effort which I viewed as being worth 142, three pounds higher than the mark he ran off.
The other handicap chase on day three over two miles and five furlongs was the Byrne Group Plate, which is open to non novices as well. With that in mind, you may think it would be a more competitive contest, but beforehand I felt the Jewson was the hotter race and the result of the Byrne Group Plate went a long way to justifying that view, the first two home being novices which couldn’t get into the Jewson.
Great Endeavour seemingly wasn’t fancied to any great extent, carrying owner David Johnson’s third colours, but he stepped up on his previous chasing efforts, which had been on softer ground, and held on to win by a length and a quarter from Sunnyhillboy, who made a lot of ground from the rear but found the line coming too soon to strongly challenge the winner.
I raised the winner seven pounds, one less than the winner of the Jewson to reflect the slightly more competitive nature of that race, but as there was a closer finish to the Byrne Group Plate it saw more horses going up. I put up Sunnyhillboy five pounds to 139, the third From Dawn To Dusk four pounds to 138, while an excellent effort from Mister McGoldrick raised back to 143, having run off 142. Not bad for a thirteen-year-old!
ROUNDUP: SPIRIT RIVER and GARDE CHAMPETRE by blog-editor Neil Young
My esteemed colleagues have been exhaustive and informative in their coverage of the major races, but I hope they won't mind if I shine a little spotlight on a couple of performances which particularly caught my eye.
My idea of a relatively "dark" horse to follow from Cheltenham 2010 would be Spirit River, a hurdler from the Nicky Henderson yard which sent out Binocular and Zaynar to finish first and third in the Champion Hurdle.
Spirit River is much more of a stayer than that pair, as he showed when winning the Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle by four and a half lengths off a rating of 141. Martin Greenwood has raised him 11lb to a new BHA mark of 152 - but as this was only Spirit River's fourth start in this country (he ran thrice in his native France in 2008-9) it seems certain that the best is yet to come.
Somewhat more exposed is the 11-year-old Garde Champetre, trained in Ireland by Enda Bolger and sent off 7/4 favourite to record a second successive win in the cross-country Glenfarclas Handicap Chase over 3m7f.
Running off a career-high rating of 161, the gelding did extremely well to finish within six lengths of shock winner A New Story - especially considering he made a blunder six fences out, and suffered interference in the closing stages.
Head of Handicapping Phil Smith reckons that he ran to 160 in this race - that's five pounds higher than Gold Cup third, Mon Mome!
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