Tuesday 26 January 2010

Handicappers Blog: Cheltenham Calling


"Some sparkling performances over the jumps for you this week as Cheltenham nears. John de Moraville waxes enthusiastic about Twist Magic, while Mark Olley puts some leading hurdlers under the microscope and Stephen Hindle looks forward to the RSA Chase. We also shine a spotlight on one of the all-weather's most eminent veterans, and conclude with a touch of far-eastern exotica..."
- blog editor Neil Young

A KIND OF (TWIST) MAGIC
Any lingering doubts surrounding Twist Magic's credibility as a serious Queen Mother Champion Chase candidate were imperiously swept aside with his 12 lengths victory in Ascot's Victor Chandler Chase on Saturday, writes John De Moraville.

In making handsome amends for his disheartening defeat when odds-on favourite for the same two-mile spectacular two years ago, the French-bred eight-year-old nailed irrefutably the accusation that he reserved his best for Sandown. This latest swaggering success was arguably on a par with Twist Magic's demolition job in Sandown's Tingle Creek Chase when he hammered last season's Arkle Trophy hero Forpadydeplasterer by 15 lengths, gaining an official rating of 173.

Cheltenham in March will, of course, be a different proposition altogether- a left-handed track with dizzying undulations- but, while his temperament got the better of him there last season, it is worth recalling that Twist Magic was running a blinder in the 2007 Arkle until capsizing at the second-last fence.

It remains to be seen whether celebrated stable-mate Master Minded (178 on the strength of last season's efforts) is fit to attempt a Champion Chase hat-trick. Either way though, Twist Magic, on his best behaviour and in his current form, would be more than capable of giving the reigning champ a run for his money.

While Saturday's latest Grade 1 victory was impossible to knock, it should be noted that Petit Robin, well-backed second-favourite and Twist Magic's main rival on the 'book,' failed, as he had in the race a year ago, to do himself justice.

Despite a sparkling success at Kempton over Christmas, a tendency to jump left under pressure again undermined Petit Robin's Victor Chandler chances. Third behind Master Minded at Cheltenham last March, Petit Robin, if reproducing his Kempton mark of 165, should be capable once more of making the Festival frame.

Alan King has endured a miserable time with his massive string under the weather for much of the season but recent evidence suggests that the corner has at last been turned.

The Barbury Castle handler celebrated three winners on Saturday and will have been thrilled by the return to form of one of last season's stable stalwarts, Oh Crick.

A revelation last spring with gutsy victories in Cheltenham's Grand Annual and the Red Rum Chase at Aintree- two of the hottest two-mile handicaps of the season- Oh Crick came from 'nowhere' to snatch third in the Victor Chandler. That was his best performance yet, earning a 7lb rise to 155.

CROSS MARKS THE SPOT
There were some interesting performances in the 2m hurdle division this week, writes Mark Olley, and none more so than Peddlers Cross who landed the Grade 2 Sportingbet.com Novice Hurdle at Haydock on Saturday.

The way he pulled clear of the consistent 130-level performer Scriptwriter and recent h’cap winner Radium (131) was something to behold. A four runner novice hurdle on heavy ground isn’t the most solid base for a high rating, but the 148 I have settled on makes him the joint highest rated novice we have seen this season and the basic figures suggest he could be higher.

Donald McCain hinted that he would be out again before Cheltenham and hopefully that will confirm my impression of a top-class novice.

Medermit’s hurdling was probably the decisive factor in his victory over Punjabi in the Grade 2 Sportingbet.com Champion Hurdle trial at Haydock and last year’s Supreme Novice runner-up has improved with virtually every racecourse appearance. He received 4lbs from Punjabi and as he beat him by 4 lengths they both now share a rating of 164.

There are a whole host of horses rated between 168 and 164, but with Alan King’s stable beginning to have winners after a lean season Medermit must be right in the mix in a very open Champion Hurdle year.

At the opposite end of the scale it was good to see Crystal Prince break his NH maiden tag at Plumpton on Monday, at the 20th time of asking. His new rating of 85 is still some 20lbs below the form he showed when runner-up at that same Sussex venue 14 months previously so there could be more to come now he has got his head in front.

A WORD ABOUT NOUN
Handicappers are often accused of “stopping” horses, as in putting them up in the weights by more than they really should be to prevent them running up a winning sequence, writes Stephen Hindle. Anyone who subscribes to that theory, however, is misguided, as the exploits of Noun de La Thinte prove.

Venetia Williams’ mare landed her fourth race in succession at Southwell, the last three of which have been over fences. She didn’t win any of her races by more than two and three-quarter lengths and therefore couldn’t be put up by large amounts, and she has kept improving just enough to keep her head in front. Whether another seven-pound rise following her latest success will be enough to stop her is debatable, as it can be argued that we don’t really know how good horses like this are until they get beat.

The RSA Chase at Cheltenham, which will hopefully feature Nicky Henderson’s star duo of Long Run and Punchestowns, was a mouth watering prospect before the weekend, but it looks even more exciting now, following a near faultless debut over fences from Diamond Harry in the Sportingbet.com Altcar Novices’ Chase at Haydock.

Faced with only three rivals, albeit useful ones, Diamond Harry largely jumped well in the grade 2 contest and coasted clear to score by sixteen lengths from the reliable Knockara Beau. His task was made easier, however, when Bensalem took a tumble at the third last.

It’s hard to rate such small-field affairs, but Diamond Harry looks likely to transfer all his 163-rated hurdling ability to fences. He won’t have to contend with his Long Walk Hurdle conqueror Big Buck’s if sent to the RSA and in most renewals would have an excellent chance, but it will be no easy task against the Henderson pair if they all turn up in March.

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