My Handicapping team is often accused of discriminating against certain groups of horses and trainers so that they cannot win handicaps. Although we regularly deny this, certain theories often gather pace and become folklore. I thought it might be interesting to look at the winners of jump handicaps in Britain over the last week and try to debunk some of the more popular myths that we hear from trainers.
"If you go up for being placed you can’t possibly win next time". - Oiseau De Nuit up 6lbs. for finishing 2nd last time, Have You Seen Me up 4lbs for finishing 3rd at Plumpton, Rince Donn up 4lbs. for finishing 2nd last time and Qozak up 2lbs. for finishing 4th last time might have helped to quieten that one for a while.
"Once your horse gets to 10 years of age it won’t win another handicap" - Zanzibar Boy, Kinkeel, Wizard of Edge and The Sawyer amongst others make a healthy defence on ageism over the last week.
"No horse can ever run up a sequence under the current handicap system". - Noun De La Thinte (5 on the bounce), Rapid Increase (2 consecutive wins) Senor Shane (3 on the bounce) have managed to achieve consecutive victories in jump handicaps.
"The Novices are going in too high and can’t win off the marks they are given". - Gold Award, Shadrack, and Young Buddy are just three of the Novices that have overcome the marks my team have given them in handicaps against non Novices.
"You go up quickly enough but you never come down that quickly". - Dan Buoy won this week having dropped 22 lbs. in four months, Our Vic won a top handicap having come down 19lbs. in the last year despite winning only a few months ago.
"Horses get put up for running over a different obstacle but never come down for running poorly over a different obstacle". - Mr Floppy was dropped over fences for running moderately over hurdles and won over fences in a handicap chase this week.
"Once you get put up by a double figure amount you never win again". - It’s Teescomponents overcame a 16lbs. rise for an earlier win at Newcastle to win at the same venue this week.
"The rule allowing you to run in a handicap after two placed runs never leads to a win in a handicap". - The Rainbow Hunter and Volador have all been well placed by their trainers to win handicaps after qualifying by being placed on their first two runs in Novice races.
"It’s the kiss of death if you end up with top weight in a handicap" – Ballabriggs, and Too Forward both carried 11st. 12lbs. to victory on heavy ground last week.
"If you run well in a top race you are hammered by the Handicapper" – Mamlook was second in the Elite Hurdle earlier this season but won a top handicap at Ascot on Saturday off a 6lbs. lower mark.
"You should never go up in the weights for falling" – Richard’s Sundance was put up 5lbs. for falling two runs ago, another 7lbs. for winning a Beginners’ Chase at Exeter and as a Novice, carried top weight to win at Wincanton on Saturday.
This week there have been wins by northern trainers, lady trainers, novice horses, older horses, champion trainers, trainers with big strings, trainers with small strings, sons of champion trainers, horses that have gone up and horses that have been dropped but you can be sure that some people will think that they are discriminated against.
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